Gate.io Blog Bitcoin's Four-year Cycle Reappears, Can It Break A New High in 2025?

Bitcoin's Four-year Cycle Reappears, Can It Break A New High in 2025?

07 January 13:48

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![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1736228677newindustryanalysis.jpeg)
## [TL；DR]: 
In early 2024, the approval and listing of the first batch of spot <a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> ETFs in the United States became an important driving force for the Bitcoin market, and the BTC spot price rose sharply by 62% in the first quarter.

The Bitcoin cycle usually enters an exponential growth phase after the “post-halving cooling-off” phase. Based on historical data, Bitcoin could reach $140,000 to $210,000 during this cycle.

Combined with the obvious four-year cycle characteristics of the Bitcoin market in the past, it can be foreseen that Bitcoin has the potential to replicate the sharp rise in previous cycles in 2025. Although there are short-term risks, the overall outlook is positive.

## Introduction
Since entering 2024, with the launch of spot ETFs, the fourth halving, and the policy push of the US presidential election, the price of Bitcoin has experienced a sharp rise, and finally hit a record high at the end of the year, reaching around $100,000. So, looking forward to 2025, where will Bitcoin go? This article will provide you with an in-depth analysis.
 
## Bitcoin's N-shaped Upward Trajectory in 2024
2024 is a dramatic and milestone year for the Bitcoin market. At the beginning of the year, with the approval of the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, the Bitcoin market ushered in a strong upward driving force. This favorable policy quickly ignited the market's enthusiasm, and the price of Bitcoin rose sharply in a short period.

According to Gate.io market data, BTC spot prices rose 62% in the first quarter, outperforming the overall market trend.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17362287521.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io 
 
However, in the second quarter, the Bitcoin market experienced a deep adjustment. On April 20, Bitcoin ushered in the fourth halving event, and the reward per block was reduced from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC. Although the halving event is generally considered a positive factor for the Bitcoin market, the market did not immediately usher in a sharp rise after the halving but entered a period of volatility. During this period, affected by special events such as the German and US government sell-offs and Mt.Gox compensation, the BTC market ended in a volatile downward trend.

Entering the third quarter, the Bitcoin market continued fluctuating, but market trading activity declined. However, with the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September, market sentiment gradually warmed up and trading activity increased.

In the fourth quarter, Trump's victory in the US election and the official implementation of the first crypto accounting standards formulated by the FSAB brought unprecedented policy clarity to the Bitcoin market. These positive factors jointly drove the surge in Bitcoin prices, eventually hitting a record high of $108,366.80 on December 17.

If we expand our perspective and examine Bitcoin's historical price trends, we can easily see its significant upward trend, which is N-shaped.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17362287802.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io 
 
Since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009, its price has experienced an N-shaped upward path with multiple ups and downs. Among them, 2017 was a year of skyrocketing Bitcoin prices, soaring from less than $1,000 at the beginning of the year to nearly $20,000 at the end of the year, an astonishing increase. However, in the following years, Bitcoin prices experienced significant fluctuations, even falling below $4,000 at one point. But since 2020, Bitcoin prices have again seen a sharp rise and hit a record high in 2021.
 
## Where Will the Bitcoin Price Ceiling Be in 2025?
We have observed that recently, at the turn of the old and new years, many crypto institutions have made positive predictions about the market trend in 2025. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, predicts that the price of Bitcoin may be between $80,000 and $150,000; Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, is more radical, predicting that Bitcoin will break through $150,000 in the first half of the year and reach $185,000 in the fourth quarter; Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025; and Elitsa Taskova, chief product officer at <a href="/price/nexo-nexo" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Nexo</a>, predicts that Bitcoin will double to $250,000.

If we refer to indicators that have been validated by multiple bull and bear markets in the past, there is indeed some room for growth in 2025. The MVRV Z-Score is an indicator that measures the ratio between Bitcoin's realized price and its market value. Currently, this indicator shows that Bitcoin still has significant upside potential. Although the Z-Score has exceeded 7 in previous cycles, the current level is still far below this threshold, indicating that the market has not yet reached the stage of overvaluation.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17362288043.jpeg)
Source: @0xCryptoChan
 
In addition, the Pi Cycle Oscillator indicator also shows that the Bitcoin market is in the stage of recovering bullish momentum. The distance between the 111-day and 350-day moving averages has begun to rise, indicating that the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise in the coming months.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17362288284.jpeg)
Source: glassnode
 
Of course, judging from historical price trends, the Bitcoin cycle usually lasts 6 to 12 months in the "post-halving cooling" phase before entering an exponential growth phase. Based on past cycle data, Bitcoin is currently near this breakthrough point.

Although returns may be lower than in earlier cycles, Bitcoin may still achieve significant gains. For example, in the 2020 cycle, the price of Bitcoin peaked at nearly $70,000 after breaking through its all-time high.

So if we conservatively estimate a 2x or 3x increase, Bitcoin could reach $140,000 to $210,000 during this cycle.
 
##  What Are the New Market Drivers?
The biggest impact on Bitcoin in 2024 is the huge buying push of spot ETFs. By the end of last year, 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs held more than 1 million Bitcoins, accounting for 5% of the circulating supply and 4.7% of the total supply.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17362288605.jpeg)
Source: glassnode
 
More institutional funds, such as pension funds, are expected to enter the Bitcoin market in 2025. In particular, some countries and US states may include Bitcoin in their reserve assets in 2025, which will further promote the adoption rate of Bitcoin.
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17362288726.jpeg)
Source: @Dennis_Porter_

Of course, in the new year, although the underlying technology and ecosystem applications of Bitcoin are advancing slowly, they are still releasing positive signals, which is an inherent factor in pushing up the price of Bitcoin. Second-layer expansion technologies such as the Lightning Network may be further developed and applied, increasing the transaction speed and scalability of Bitcoin and reducing transaction costs. This will make the application of Bitcoin in scenarios such as daily payments and small transactions more feasible. At the same time, Bitcoin's privacy protection may also be strengthened by introducing new privacy protocols or technical improvements to make Bitcoin transactions more difficult to track and monitor.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17362288877.jpeg)
Source: DefiLlama
 
Combined with the obvious four-year cyclical characteristics of the Bitcoin market over the past four years, it is foreseeable that this year, under the relatively loose regulatory environment in the United States and the continued net inflow of external funds, Bitcoin will likely replicate the sharp rise in previous cycles. In fact, the current cycle has been rising for two years since November 2022, with a six-fold increase. Although it is lower than the return level achieved in the past cycle, it is still in the bull market stage. Judging from historical laws, the Bitcoin market may still have a lot of room to go before the bull market's peak.

Overall, the improvement of the macro environment and the development of internal mechanisms are expected to have a positive impact on the Bitcoin market. Although there are always various hype risks, we expect Bitcoin to perform better in 2025.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Charle Y.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. All investments carry inherent risks; prudent decision-making is essential.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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TL；DR

Introduction

Bitcoins N-shaped Upward Trajectory in 2024

Where Will the Bitcoin Price Ceiling Be in 2025?

What Are the New Market Drivers?

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Bitcoin's Four-year Cycle Reappears, Can It Break A New High in 2025?

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